Project Management Professional (PMP) — Question 813

During a risk management meeting, most of the project team members use a computer to iterate the quantitative risk analysis model numerous times. There will be a cumulative probability distribution (S-curve) representing the probability of achieving any particular outcome.

Which method should the project manager use to assess and manage project risks?

Answer options

• A. Influence diagrams
• B. Sensitivity analysis
• C. Decision tree analysis
• D. Monte Carlo analysis

Correct answer: D

Explanation

The correct answer is Monte Carlo analysis because it allows for the simulation of various scenarios to understand the probability of different outcomes, which is essential for creating the S-curve. The other methods, while useful in risk analysis, do not provide the same level of stochastic analysis or cumulative probability distribution that Monte Carlo offers.