Program Management Professional (PgMP) — Question 391

You are the program manager for your organization and you are trying to determine the possible outcomes of a risk event. You're analyzing the risk event's worst case scenario, most likely scenario, and optimistic scenario to simulate the possible affects of the risk on the program's cost, time, and scope ramifications. What simulation technique are you using in this situation?

Answer options

• A. Monte Carlo simulation
• B. Sensitivity analysis
• C. Force field analysis
• D. Decision tree analysis

Correct answer: A

Explanation

The correct answer is A, Monte Carlo simulation, as it allows for the analysis of different scenarios by running simulations based on varying input factors. The other options, such as Sensitivity analysis, primarily focus on how changes in one variable affect outcomes, while Force field analysis and Decision tree analysis are used for different purposes and do not simulate multiple outcomes in the same way.